[Leaplist] Advocacy: MS Execs gave sworn evidence that Linux
was >17%, in 2004!
Fred Moore
fmoor at fmeco.com
Mon Nov 5 18:52:53 GMT 2007
Stephen A. Cullum wrote:
> patrick wrote:
>> Every once in a while, someone else says something you've been thinking,
>> only, in a more cohesive way. Getting some grasp of the Linux share of
>> the user base is like nailing jello to the wall.
>>
>> I recall many reports in the media, on the Internet, that back up this
>> exchange, over on Newsgroups/Computers.OS.Linux.Advocacy aka c.o.l.a
>> where it can be a day of M$ Troll lies and FUD, or a ray of sunshine of
>> mental clarity, such as the following exchange. Access with Thunderbird
>> to your ISP news-server. Some of the concepts here can be put into a
>> google search, and actual documents, news reports, even web sites, will
>> appear!
>>
>> Of major interest to me, is that Microsoft Executives have given sworn
>> Court testimony that they know for a fact that Linux has over 17% market
>> share in the user space, in 2004!
>>
>> You may notice the time is early morning, 2:45 AM here, but, I awoke
>> with these nagging questions, and for once, I have no audience, as, even
>> my dog won't listen!
>>
>> QUOTE:
>> On Nov 4, 11:51 pm, Charlie Tame <char... at tames.net> wrote:
>>
>>>> Rex Ballard wrote:
>>>>
>>>>>> On Nov 4, 1:43 pm, Charlie Tame <char... at tames.net> wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Don't think there's a lot to be gained from trying to guess.
>>>>>>>> Nobody is going to "Persuade" users to change systems as
>>>>>>>> well as Microsoft
>>>>>>>> themselves can do it :)
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>> You are probably right. Microsoft has done more to sell Linux
>>>>>> than even the most rabid penguinistas.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> On the other hand, it's a good idea to have method of determining
>>>>>> patterns.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> It's easy to count a small number of users and units.
>>>>>> It's easy to count licenses when you have enforcement and forced
>>>>>> registration/activation mechanisms, which Microsoft has.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> On the other hand, counting Linux is much more of a challenge.
>>>>>> You have over 100 distributions, (315 LiveCDroms at
>>>>>> http://cdlist.com ,Ed.!) most of which have multiple
>>>>>> mirrors, sometimes hundreds of them, and the downloaded images
>>>>>> can be freely redistributed.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> You have magazines and books (CD/DVD distributions, ed.) that
>>>>>> never get counted in any of the software surveys.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> You have corporate networks and academic networks that permit
>>>>>> massive downloads.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Bob Young (Red Hat founder. ed.)did a very good study that was a
>>>>>> wake-up call.
>>>>>>
>>>> Well MS should have better figures (on sales volume. Ed.) than
>>>> anyone else since all their
>>>> updates are centralized (More or less) but even then it's not that
>>>> great, after all it could be a million users doing the update or one
>>>> guy doing a million reinstalls - bet he's pretty sick of it by now
>>>> :)
>>>>
>>
>> Microsoft DOES have very good figures and measures, as do major sites
>> with registered users such as Google, Yahoo, Infoseek, Expedia,
>> Travelocity, and several others. These measures are taken using
>> persistent cookies or persistent Identities.
>>
>> In both the US and EU antitrust cases, Microsoft executives argued
>> that Linux had a substantially higher percentage of the market than
>> previously suspected. In the DOJ case (1999), Microsoft asserted that
>> Linux had 14% of the market. In the EU case, Microsoft changed the
>> number to 17%. These were statements made under oath, and would only
>> have been made if Microsoft were prepared to back up those numbers.
>>
>> In neither trial did the prosecution challenge those numbers. This
>> may have been because they had similar information. Of course, this
>> was probably percentage of previous year based on GROWTH in counts of
>> servers.
>>
>>
>>>> Seriously though I think there's been a wake up call for a while, but
>>>> the Linux community heard it before it got loud and MS seem not to have
>>>> taken any notice yet.
>>>>
>>
>> Microsoft was aware of Linux as early as 1993. Microsoft had also
>> been following the progress of UNIX, BSD, BSD/386, and FreeBSD. Most
>> versions of AT&T Unix had a "floor" price of $700 per copy. Even SCO
>> tried to demand a royalty payment of $700 per server in their demands
>> for revenue from Linux users. In 1991, the BSD ownership was
>> transferred from University of California at Berkeley to the
>> University of Colorado of Boulder. A commercial license for BSD was
>> granted to BSDi in Colorado Springs, and open source versions were
>> available as free downloads.
>>
>> Microsoft knew it could defend itself against a $700 per copy Unix
>> License, but the possibiliity of a fully functional version of Unix or
>> a Unix-like operating system such as Mach/BSD, Mach/OSF, or Linux
>> being available in a format that would make it possible to make UNIX-
>> like workstations for under $1000 per unit, and UNIX-like servers for
>> under $1200 - that would be a very real problem and a very real threat
>> to Windows.
>>
>> Microsoft knew about X11R4 and even licensed the HP Interviews package
>> on a nonexclusive basis. It was actually an important part of Windows
>> NT 3.x, Windows 95, Windows NT 4.0, and Windows 2000. Microsoft knew
>> that if Unix PCs made it to retail shelves in 1990 or 1991, that
>> Microsoft could lose control of the PC market. Bill Gates was so
>> concerned about it that he announced that Windows NT would be a
>> "Better Unix than Unix".
>>
>> By 1994, Microsoft was watching Linux and Novell UnixWare very
>> closely. I haven't ever been able to verify the story, but according
>> to one e-mail I received back in 1995 or 1996, Microsoft met with the
>> Novell board of directors and demanded that they stop development on a
>> UnixWare workstation. Microsoft was also very concerned about the
>> Linux "plug-and-play" capabilities as well as dual boot capabilities.
>>
>> According to a lecture given by Bob Young, Red Hat had offered to
>> license Red Hat Linux to OEMs for as little as $2 per copy as part of
>> a dual-boot system. The OEMs didn't have to install Linux
>> exclusively, Red Hat was quite willing to let the OEMs continue to
>> install Windows. The Red Hat solution would allow the end-user to
>> boot either Linux or Windows each time the PC was booted.
>>
>> By the end of 1994, Microsoft pretty much decided that Linux was the
>> biggest threat. There were multiple distributors, and each was
>> willing to offer Linux to OEMs at very reasonable terms. The Linux
>> systems could configure themselves to a wide variety of ISA, EISA,
>> VESA, and MicroChannel. I think Linux may have even supported the
>> original PCI standards.
>>
>> In 1995, while Microsoft scrambled to deliver "Chicago", Ray Noorda
>> was running a Linux development organization called Caldera, formed by
>> all of the workstation developers who had been working on the UnixWare
>> Workstation project. The Caldera organization went after many
>> franchises, offering a viable alternative to Windows at the cash
>> register, and to SCO Unix in the "server closet".
>>
>> The book "The plot to get Bill Gates", provides much more insight on
>> this whole evolution, and the role of people like Ray Noorda. Bill
>> Joy and Sun were also actively supporting Linux. Remember that Sun
>> had established a "Beach-head" of about 15% of the corporate
>> workstation market in 1990, and Microsoft had killed that market in
>> 1992 by announcing vapor-ware features of Windows NT. Sun retaliated
>> by contributing OpenLook and the OpenLook Window manager to the Linux
>> movement. In fact, Linux patches to OLVWM (virtual windows version)
>> added multiple desktops, ability to act as an X11 client to Motif
>> (IBM, DEC, and HP) and Open Look (SUN) servers..
>>
>> Eric Raymond published the first Halloween papers in 1997. Halloween,
>> by the way, was also the name of one of the earliest Red Hat
>> releases. The Microsoft memos raising concerns about Linux may have
>> been triggerd as a result of the Halloween release.
>>
>> Even with OS/X and Leopard threatening to make Apple the third largest
>> PC maker, Microsoft is still more concerned with Linux than any other
>> competitor. Memos from top executives at Microsoft, as well as public
>> statements by Steve Ballmer say "Win Against Linux AT ALL
>> COSTS" (capitalization mine).
>>
>> Even when ordered by the federal court to stop interfering with
>> attempts to market Linux to OEMs, Microsoft has attempted to force
>> OEMs to exclude Linux by forcing an "Either/Or" configuration. The
>> OEMs are not allowed to use dual OS configurations.
>>
>> By 2001, the Linux community offered "Live-CD" like Knoppix, that
>> allowed Linux users to test a PC with Linux, without actually having
>> to install it. These could be coupled with external USB drives to
>> allow end-users to turn compatible PCs into Linux workstations without
>> altering the Windows configurations.
>>
>>
>>>> I mean for all the banter back and forth it seems
>>>> to me that Linux has leaped ahead while Microsoft has, well, jumped up
>>>> and down a bit and said "WoW". I think they are failing to note the
>>>> resentment building in their user base :)
>>>>
>>
>> The problem for Microsoft is that Linux has been growing at triple-
>> digit rates and that growth and growth rate has cascaded through a
>> number of different markets. Linux "Appliances" have replaced
>> millions, possibly hundreds of millions of Windows servers used for
>> file sharing, printer sharing, routing, firewalls, and other key
>> applications.
>>
>> The big concern for Microsoft is that there are about 3-4 Million
>> "Linux Only" workstation users, and that market seems to be growing as
>> fast as all of the other Linux waves. Microsoft's business model only
>> requires that windows licenses be sold to OEMs and Corporations,
>> ideally the same PC could be licensed 2-3 times. Linux was more
>> like a "squatter". But as people spend more time using LInux, and
>> more time LIKING Linux, many are beginning to realize they don't need
>> Windows at all. Point of Sale terminals, Cash Registers, Call Center
>> workstations, and developer workstations are all excellent candidates
>> for replacement with Linux.
>>
>> Microsoft has also watched ODF, OpenOffice, StarOffice, and other ODF
>> based Office suites become ubiquitious on not only Linux, but Windows
>> as well. With over 1/2 billion Firefox users, 1/2 billion ODF Office
>> Suite users, and over 1 billion Java enabled devices, the market is
>> pushing back. at Microsoft. Many companies are planning preemptive
>> strikes to take place as soon as the DOJ settlement expires.
>>
>> END QUOTE
>>
>> My take is that I think a look at Groklaw and a pawing through the trial
>> transcripts might provide more enlightenment on the facts. Some
>> searching in Ask.com, etc. will keep me from such nonsense as posting
>> these tidbits, at least for a short while. What is your opinion?
>>
>> The above proves to me what I knew already; that my ten years of
>> advocacy, standing in store aisles shouting "Linux is the future, here,
>> have a FREE GNU/Linux CD!" are not in vain!
>>
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>>
>>
> When I shop for peripherals I check to see if they are Linux
> compatible. The fact that most vendors now support Linux shows that
> the operating system is not in the fringe at all.
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Actually I counted 2 sentences. I don't know where the \n were located
as the emailer set parts in html mail instead of plain text.. Fred.
--
Benjamin Franklin "The man who trades freedom for security does not deserve nor will he ever receive either"
Benjamin Franklin "They that can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety".
Fred/WD8KNI
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